Week 4 Sunday Night Football Patriots vs Buccaneers
For each of the games featured, typically the Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football, and Thursday Night Football slates, we’ll be providing free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules, player rankings, commentary and NFL DFS picks for today. There’s plenty of NFL DFS Showdown information and choices for DraftKings and FanDuel on this Sunday Night Week 4 football slate featuring the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New England Patriots.
NFL DFS Showdown Pick: Sunday Night Football Week 4
Tonight Tampa Bay will be without Rob Gronkowski, Giovani Bernard and Scotty Miller in attack, thought they got Antonio brown back from the COVID reserve. In defense they have a recent addition Richard sherman but will be without Jamel Dean, and Carlton Davis is questionable. New England have several players on both sides of the ball listed as questionable, and Jacques Blanc is on the casualty reserve after sustaining a hip injury.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 28.25
The stars align tonight for Tom brady set the all-time record for passing yards, probably in the first quarter, because he only needs 68 yards to pass Drew Brees. The Patriots have the fourth best DVOA this season. On the other hand, Brady leads the NFL with 10 touchdown passes and is second with 1,087 yards.
Giovani bernard was active in week 3, with 10 targets, a high for the season. However, he injured his knee late in the game and will not be on the pitch tonight. Leonard Fournette (99) has twice as many snaps as Ronald jones ii (44). That led to a 14-3 target disparity for Fournette, and he has 24 carries to Jones’ 15. Tampa is only recording 56.3 rushing yards per game, which is just ahead of Pittsburgh and 23 yards behind Green Bay.
Brown will return after missing week 3 with a positive COVID test. Keep in mind that he was vaccinated, which hopefully means he only had mild symptoms. Miller and Rob gronkowski came out, so things should focus on Brown, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Each player has a realistic shot at 8-10 targets.
Cameron Brate and JO Howard will replace Gronkowski. Last week, Brate saw five targets, although he’s only had six this season. Howard, on the other hand, has one in each of the last two games. Both are threats in the red zone, and either could see targets in midfield.
Defense / Special teams
Tampa Bay will face Mac Jones in his fourth career game, and he has 205 snaps to his name. Although the Buccaneers have just three sacks this season, it wouldn’t be a surprise for them to match that total tonight and add some takeout.
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New England Patriots: 21.25
Jones has attempted 120 passes in three games, although the Patriots prefer to run the ball if possible. Playing from behind doesn’t help the rushed play, and Jones had 51 attempts last weekend against New Orleans. Although he’s mobile, he only has six carries for 28 yards. It will be interesting to see how he fares in this bitter rivalry under the bright lights against top notch defense.
White played a key role as a safety valve for Jones, but was lost early last week to a hip injury and is now in the injured reserve. Damien harris is the main option, but with his poor pass blocking and receiving skills, he will be hard to trust. The opportunities will evaporate depending on how many points Tampa Bay puts on the board. Rhamondre Stevenson saw five snapshots in week 1 and has been inactive since. Brandon bolden entered the void last week after White’s downfall, though that was likely because he was the most reliable player who was active, and he topped (33) both Jakob johnson (new) and Jj taylor (10) combined. Tonight is shaping up to be the most evil Belichick backfield in a long time, and it will be interesting to see what unexpected strategy he employs.
Jakobi Meyers plays almost 95% of snaps, with Nelson agholor see about 85% and Kendrick bourne everywhere as a third wide receiver. Bourne’s opportunities will depend on both the score and how coach Belichick decides to protect Jones with a very tight wing.
New England introduced Hunter Henri and Jonnu Smith to strengthen both the line and add short range reception options. They covered every snap at position, with Henry playing 70% of the downs and Smith seeing 50-60%. The goals have been consistent for both, with Henry getting 13 overall and Smith seeing 16; The high water mark came last Sunday when they split 12 targets that went to the position.
Defense / Special teams
It’s going to be a great chess match between Brady and Belichick. It only takes a stroke of luck for a return touchdown, although with the way Brady limits sacks and turnovers, it’s hard to put any hopes on that result.
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NFL DFS strategy on a Sunday night football game
The leaderboards below are best used for creating single-entry and up to three rosters and for one-on-one and three-way formats. They provide a good barometer of player value, but for those taking the MME approach, remember that correlation is key. That means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain / MVP slot. It also works the other way around with the association of a Captain / MVP wide receiver with their quarterback.
NFL DFS Sunday Night Football Rankings of Week 4
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Tom Brady: DraftKings has done a terrific job with the paycheck, but no one else can be the best option.
- Léonard Fournette: Lines up as one of the best point per dollar options at both sites and offers savings.
- Jakobi Meyers: Best option for the Patriots given his handing over from Jones.
- Antonio Brown: Easily the best option on the full PPR as the cheapest of the Tampa trio. FanDuel will be who finds the end zone.
- Nick Folk: Signed last week to replace the injured Quinn Nordin; the $ 3,400 salary on DraftKings and the $ 9,500 tag on FanDuel are ridiculous for completely opposite reasons (drop Folk on top of the secondary section for FanDuel).
- Chris Godwin: Comes with a hefty premium but can clearly cover.
- Ryan Succop: On a points-per-dollar basis, he needs two field goals to top Jones at both sites.
- Mac Jones: He’s averaging just over 12 fantastic points per game.
- Mike Evans: Could break both the game and the DFS slate with a long touchdown or two.
- Cameron Brate and OJ Howard: Brate will likely have more opportunities, although on DraftKings Howard is only a fraction of the cost.
Secondary picks NFL DFS Showdown
- Tampa Bay D / ST: DraftKings set that salary at $ 6,600.
- Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith: It’s no exaggeration to trade with Brate on FanDuel either. Howard is an afterthought on FanDuel due to his similar salary and concerns about his volume of opportunities.
- Damien Harris: Must find the end area.
- Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne: Coin flip, although definitely behind Meyers and tight ends in pecking order.
- Ronald Jones: DraftKings’ enticing salary of $ 2,000 puts him in the game. On FanDuel, he’s just a multi-entry pivot away from Fournette, which costs just $ 500 more (although Fournette will easily carry double or triple the popularity).
NFL DFS Showdown Picks Lottery Ticket
- Brandon Bolden: In play as a dart throw for just $ 600 on DraftKings in the hopes that Belichick will turn to him at some point.
- Tyler Johnson: If he can enter the field even for 12 snaps, he has touchdown equity with Brady at the helm.
- JJ Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson and Jakob Johnson: Behind Bolden, but barely; listed in order of preference.
- New England D / ST: Will be on less than 10% of all listings.
- N’Keal Harry and Gunner Olszewski: Neither has a target yet; Olszewski returns at least the punts and the kickoffs.
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