NFL DFS Picks & Week 4 TNF Showdown Breakdown DraftKings & FanDuel
Welcome to the NFL Showdown Showdown Game Highlights for Thursday Night Football Week 4. Here, we’ll provide a quick rundown of the game’s main storylines and highlight some of the key information from Awesemo’s world-class suite of tools for finding the best NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel Showdown rosters. Let’s dive into the NFL DFS picks today for Thursday night’s Jaguars vs. Bengals soccer game.
Week 4 Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Showdown Picks
This Thursday evening presents the last two choices n ° 1, Trevor Laurent and Joe Burrow, meeting for the first time since the 2019 NCAA National Championship game. The Lawrence Jaguars rank among the worst in the league in many key offensive categories and currently have a 38-point differential, the third-worst in the NFL. The 2-1 Bengals appear to be much improved from last season, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but they still have a lot of questions about their offensive consistency. With a key contributor Higgins T-shirt ready to miss their second game in a row, the Bengals’ touches should be a bit more focused than usual, which will be advantageous for Showdown DFS players.
Joe Mixon should see a lot of work
Mixon has been quiet in terms of production for the past two weeks, scoring a total of 18.5 PPR points since his superb Week 1 when he was NFL RB2, had 33 total opportunities and 4.7 yards per touch. Still, Mixon has yet to have a game with less than 19 opportunities and has exceeded 75 total yards in four of his last six starts dating back to last season. The Jaguars rank just below the league average in calendar-adjusted fantasy points allowed and tend to be easier to attack via ground play than in the air. This makes Mixon the safest skill position player on the slate, and the Awesemo value ranking for Mixon is higher than Burrow’s on DraftKings.
Tyler Boyd’s match looks juicy
The Jaguars are third in the NFL’s worst points in yards per passing attempt allowed, eighth worst in points allowed per game, and they just traded CJ Henderson. The Jaguars have exactly one cornerback currently in PFF’s Top 100 cornerbacks (Griffon Shaquill at # 92), which is why PFF ranks Boyd’s game against the ill-fated secondary Jaguars as the fourth most profitable game for a wideout in Week 4. On DraftKings and FanDuel, Boyd ranks first in metrics Awesemo’s value among all players screened for 7-plus fantasy points due to his rather affordable salary of $ 7,400, which is only the seventh highest on the list.
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Trevor Lawrence struggles
Lawrence struggled a lot in his first NFL action, ranking ninth in total passing attempts and fourth in total overhead yards but 25th in passing yards. PlayerProfiler.com awards Lawrence 17 interceptable passes, tied with Ben roethlisberger for the most in the league. Lawrence hasn’t been helped much by his receivers, as the Jaguars currently rank fifth in worst lost passes and last three in terms of average separation from receivers to target, and combined with Lawrence’s lack of precision and his mediocre decision-making, there has been little offensive consistency to speak of. Lawrence is slated for almost 5 points lower than Burrow, making Burrow the best default pick for Showdown rosters that only use one quarterback. Even with Lawrence not playing to his potential, it’s probably more beneficial to get both players into the lineups.
Jacksonville Wide Receiver trio have tournament appeal
The Bengals’ defense looks a lot better this season. After being one of the league’s most exploitable secondary players in 2019 and 2020, Cincinnati ranks fourth in the NFL in yards per allowed passing attempt and fifth in points per allowed play. They have three cornerbacks ranked in the top 50 in PFF defensive ratings but none in the top 25, meaning one of Jacksonville’s top three receivers – Marvin Jones, DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault – could have a big game on the spot. Awesemo projects around 36 DraftKings points for the trio, with 40% of production going to Jones and the remaining 60% to Chark and Shenault. But due to a slightly deflated salary, Awesemo likes Shenault the best of three on DraftKings and FanDuel. If you play one of the three instead of the Captain, be sure to pair them with Lawrence.
Ja’Marr Chase could be real
While Boyd might look like a better value game on paper, Chase has been impressive in his first three games in the NFL. He ranks outside the top 33 receivers in target share, but in the top five in aerial yards and made the most of his opportunity, currently in the top 12 among receivers in fantastic points per game. Chase ranks in the top 10 in yards per target, Expected Points Added (EPA) and passer rating when targeted. Jacksonville just might not have anyone on their roster who can keep pace with Chase. He’s scored a touchdown on 25% of his targets, a totally unbearable number, but that doesn’t mean he can’t have another explosive game against an understaffed Jacksonville secondary.
The bottom line
This game is incredibly important for Cincinnati, who could easily go 3-0 if they had dealt with business against an average Chicago team in Week 2. If they can reach 3-1, that will put the Bengals on their best path to the playoffs. contention in nearly half a decade, with winnable games against the Lions and Jets heading into their Week 10 recess. The Jaguars are simply looking for a semblance of stability, both in offense and defense. Jacksonville are the only team to be ranked in the bottom five in both offensive EPA offensive pass rate and cleared defensive EPA pass rate, and they could very well be on track for back-to-back No.1 picks.
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Thursday Night Football Prediction of Week 4: Bengals 24, Jaguars 17
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Take a look at our NFL lineups, depth charts for NFL games and inactive. If you’re interested in other NFL DFS picks for multiple game listings, check out the projected NFL DFS property, Awesemo’s NFL Data Central, Daily Fantasy Football Leaderboards, and Daily Fantasy Football Stack.