Matthew Stafford & Joe Mixon
We’ll be looking at the single statistic DFS totals you should target on PrizePicks for NFL Week 3. If you’re new to the site, PrizePicks is different from your traditional NFL DFS picks. Rather, you have the option of bundling over or under selections on a player’s fantastic points in parlays for big wins. Using the Awesemo NFL DFS Weekly Screenings (which also use a 1-point / PPR score and 4-point touchdown passes) and prop tools, I’ll target players who present themselves as the best options. here every week and give you an idea as to why they might be good targets. To play, match two or more games together (up to five), choose over or under the given Projected Fantastic Score or specific player stats, and you’re ready to go.
PrizePicks Fantasy NFL Picks: Week 3 Sunday Slate
QB Matthew Stafford over 290.5 passing yards
The Rams face the Buccaneers this week in a clash between the top two teams in the NFC. Quarterbacks against the Buccaneers have so far thrown an average of 53 times per game, and even since last year, opponents have attempted more passes against Tampa Bay than any team in the league. Matthew Stafford enters that game averaging 10.7 yards per passing attempt (third best in the NFL), and the Tampa high school is now hit and has given up the most receptions to opposing receivers in the league. Everything points to a heavy Rams game plan, especially since the Buccaneers are only allowing 3 yards per carry. The betting tool on Awesemo agrees, as they predict Stafford will exceed 300 yards by daylight. This is one of the biggest differences between a projection and the total PrizePicks on the entire slate.
Bonus: Russell Wilson on 285.5 passing yards
Russell wilson was the quarterback’s primary over-pick last week, and he’s once again a great over-goal here against a Vikings secondary that allows 9.3 yards per passing attempt (fifth worst in the NFL).
Bonus: Baker Mayfield passes less than 247.5 yards
Baker Mayfield projects to see a regression in their passing numbers here and is a good sub-target on that number. Cleveland is a big favorite and can be counted on Nick chubb more considering their injuries to the wide receiver.
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RB Joe Mixon over 62.5 rushing yards
The Bengals have been one of the busiest running teams so far in the past two weeks, as they have attempted 28 rushes per game, despite having no mobile quarterback. Joe mixon is second in the league for rushed attempts with 49, and with the Bengals appearing to be doing whatever it takes to protect themselves Joe terrier at the start of the season, he should still harvest a lot this week. Steelers look like a horrible game at first glance, but volume is everything in NFL DFS, and Bills is coming back Devin Singletary managed to post 6.2 yards per carry against Pittsburgh.
Rather, it’s about trusting the Bengals to keep doing what they do, and there have been plenty of indicators that they will stay away from heavyweight game plans for the foreseeable future. Awesemo’s projections also consider this total on Mixon to be too low, as he has the fourth highest precipitation total on the slate and thrown 20 yards higher than his current total on PrizePicks. The top is once again the favorite game.
Premium: Ty’Son Williams under 60.5 rushing yards
The Ravens started to mix up their new running backs a bit more in Week 2, with Latavius murray see a slight rise in snapshots and Devonta Freeman get involved too. If the Ravens have a big lead against Detroit, Ty’Son Williams’ the carries could be cut again.
Bonus: Damien Harris over 64.5 rushing yards
Damien harris had a somewhat muted week, but has already completed 39 races in two weeks. New Orleans are an elite defense, but the Patriots are 3-point road favorites and are likely to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible again. Harris is another strong projected goal.
WR Kenny Golladay’s reception on 58.5 yards
Kenny Golladay’s the start of his Giants career was not overwhelmingly positive. He only saw 14 targets (which puts him behind five Sterling shepard) and was dominated by Darius slayton also, which also saw 13 targets. However, the squeaky wheel often gets grease, and Golladay’s recent outburst on the sidelines means he should see a slight target hike soon. This week against Atlanta could be the first place for such an outbreak, as Atlanta again exhibits weak passing rush and passing defense that make them good targets for opposing wide receivers.
Atlanta is averaging just two sacks per game this year, which should help Daniel Jones more time in the pocket to look for Golladay downfield. Despite his lack of production, Golladay is averaging 14.2 yards per catch with Jones, so the extra time should really help. He should also break through here, as he has a receiving total of just under 70 yards for the week, which is 10 yards more than his current line on PrizePicks.
Bonus: Cooper Kupp on 77.5 receiving yards
Cooper Kupp crushed last week, posting 163 yards and 18.1 yards per catch. Now he’s up against a Tampa high school that allowed the most wide receivers in two games. His total remains too low.
Bonus: Landing under 75.5 yards by Terry McLaurin
that of Terry McLaurin the total seems a bit high at first glance here, especially considering his quarterback situation, and the model tends to agree. His projection is slightly lower than what could be a tough clash against a strong Bills secondary.
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TE Kyle Pitts Landing Under 55.5 Yards
Kyle pitts had a muted start to his NFL career. He saw 14 targets and played 78% of Week 2’s offensive snaps, but also averaged just 7.8 yards per catch in Week 1. Pitts netted 73 yards in the week. 2, but it was against the Buccaneers, and Atlanta threw the ball 46 times in that game. Pitts may be more of a Matt ryan problem, because Ryan is averaging just 5.7 yards per attempt in 2021.
The Giants are not world batsmen, but there are two ineffective offenses in this game. Pitts now appear to be attached to a quarterback who is past his prime who could hold Pitts back from high receiving totals. Awesemo’s projections are okay with that sentiment, as they have a Pitts draft for well under 55.5 yards in this substandard game that projects like tight but potentially ugly attacking play.
Bonus: Darren Waller over 72.5 receiving yards
Waller had a slightly muted follow-up from his great Week 1, as he caught just five passes for 65 yards. However, he’s averaged 13 yards per catch in that game and gets a slightly better game in Week 3. His target share isn’t going down anytime soon, and taking advantage of any slightly muted line when passing will likely be the game. profitable on him all season.
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